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Prediction vindicated as Espanyol edge out Athletic Club 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol beat Athletic Club 1-2 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 0.87 xG and Espanyol 1.02 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Espanyol outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Espanyol attack 0.97 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 30% | Draw 33% | Espanyol 38%, with Espanyol to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 37%, Espanyol 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Espanyol's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.70 PPG, Espanyol 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Espanyol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights