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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Athletic Club edge out Elche 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Elche 2-1 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.98 xG and Elche 1.05 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Elche attack 0.86 / defence 1.37, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 58% | Draw 24% | Elche 19%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 46%, Elche 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Elche's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.29 PPG, Elche 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Athletic Club win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights