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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Athletic Club and Celta Vigo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at San Mamés, Regular Season - 37, as Athletic Club and Celta Vigo drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 0.96 xG and Celta Vigo 1.18 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.82 / defence 0.98 against Celta Vigo attack 1.05 / defence 0.77, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 30% | Draw 29% | Celta Vigo 41%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 42%, Celta Vigo 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Celta Vigo's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.54 PPG, Celta Vigo 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights