🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Athletic Club defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Atletico Madrid 1-0 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 0.91 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.24 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Madrid landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 0.78 / defence 1.06 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.02 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 27% | Draw 29% | Atletico Madrid 44%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Athletic Club win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 38%, Atletico Madrid 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.70 PPG, Atletico Madrid 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Athletic Club win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights