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Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Athletic Club 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves beat Athletic Club 0-1 at San Mamés, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.45 xG and Alaves 0.89 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Athletic Club fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against Alaves attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 50% | Draw 27% | Alaves 23%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Alaves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 39%, Alaves 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Athletic Club's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Alaves's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Alaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights