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Stalemate at Alaves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves and Valencia finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.97 xG and Valencia 1.02 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alaves fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Valencia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Valencia attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 59% | Draw 22% | Valencia 19%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 37%, Valencia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Valencia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.15 PPG, Valencia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights