Alaves 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valencia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valencia make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alaves have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 La Liga outings this season: 1W 0D 2L. Last five: L W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valencia's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Valencia have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Valencia are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alaves lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Alaves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Valencia — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 33% versus Valencia 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 33% | Valencia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.64 xG and Valencia 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.207 / defence 1.335 | Valencia attack 0.976 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.285. Data: 3 Alaves games / 41 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 24% | Valencia 39%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Valencia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 33% | Valencia 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 37% | Draw 24% | Valencia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Alaves 1.64 / Valencia 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.207 / def 1.335 | Valencia attack 0.976 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Valencia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Valencia xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Valencia kick off?
Alaves vs Valencia kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Alaves vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Valencia part of?
Alaves vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 37% chance of winning, Valencia a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Alaves and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
Record (2 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 0 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Alaves and Valencia in?
Alaves (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L. Valencia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alaves's attack at 1.21x the league average against Valencia's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.98x) against Alaves's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
37%
2.67
24%
4.21
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Alaves xG
Total xG
3.31
1.67
Valencia xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.33
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
8%
13.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Alaves and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Alaves and 1.67 for Valencia, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valencia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Alaves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 67%.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Valencia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Valencia in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Valencia have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Alaves or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Valencia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won 3-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Alaves
2
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 4, Valencia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Valencia 3-2 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Valencia?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Valencia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 33%, Valencia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Alaves) and 67% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Valencia in 33%; Alaves have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alaves's recent matches and 67% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Alaves's recent games and 67% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Valencia tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Valencia in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alaves defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.64 xG and Valencia 1.67 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 1.21 / defence 1.33 against Valencia attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 37% | Draw 24% | Valencia 39%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Alaves win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 33%, Valencia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valencia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Alaves winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Alaves conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.