Real Sociedad 5-3 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Sociedad at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Sociedad vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Granada CF travel to Reale Arena to take on Real Sociedad. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 September 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Sociedad have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Real Sociedad have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Real Sociedad have posted 6W 4D 0L at Reale Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Reale Arena.
Granada CF — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Sociedad carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Real Sociedad, 0 for Granada CF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Real Sociedad winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Real Sociedad trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Granada CF trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Real Sociedad 67% and Granada CF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Real Sociedad 0% | Granada CF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Sociedad 1.68 xG and Granada CF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Sociedad attack 0.962 / defence 0.837 | Granada CF attack 0.860 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.247. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Real Sociedad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Real Sociedad games / 3 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Sociedad 55% | Draw 25% | Granada CF 20%. Fair-value odds: Real Sociedad 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Granada CF 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Real Sociedad (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Real Sociedad are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Real Sociedad 50% | Granada CF 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Sociedad vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Reale Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Sociedad 55% | Draw 25% | Granada CF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 49% | xG Real Sociedad 1.68 / Granada CF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Real Sociedad attack 0.962 / def 0.837 | Granada CF attack 0.860 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Real Sociedad xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Granada CF xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Sociedad vs Granada CF kick off?
Real Sociedad vs Granada CF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Reale Arena.
What was the final score in Real Sociedad vs Granada CF?
Real Sociedad 5 - 3 Granada CF.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Reale Arena.
What competition is Real Sociedad vs Granada CF part of?
Real Sociedad vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Sociedad vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Real Sociedad a 55% chance of winning, Granada CF a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Sociedad vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Real Sociedad and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Real Sociedad vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Granada CF?
Record (2 meetings): Real Sociedad 2W | Draws 0 | Granada CF 0W.
What form are Real Sociedad and Granada CF in?
Real Sociedad (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Real Sociedad's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Real Sociedad's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
55%
1.81
25%
3.96
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Real Sociedad xG
Total xG
2.57
0.90
Granada CF xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
23%
4.44
4%
27.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Real Sociedad and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.90 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Sociedad vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Real Sociedad come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 3D 0L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Real Sociedad, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Granada CF sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Granada CF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Real Sociedad on 1.00 PPG, Granada CF on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Real Sociedad are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Sociedad have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Granada CF in 67%.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Sociedad
Early Season
Granada CF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Sociedad and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Real Sociedad have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Real Sociedad or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Sociedad have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Granada CF in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Real Sociedad have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Real Sociedad's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Real Sociedad
0
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Sociedad and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Real Sociedad have won 4, Granada CF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Real Sociedad and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Granada CF 2-3 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Real Sociedad and Granada CF?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Real Sociedad at 67%, Granada CF at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Real Sociedad and 67% for Granada CF.
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Real Sociedad have failed to score in 33% of games; Granada CF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Sociedad home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Sociedad play Granada CF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Real Sociedad's games and 67% of Granada CF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Real Sociedad vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Real Sociedad's recent games and 67% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Sociedad and Granada CF tend to score early?
Real Sociedad have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Sociedad cruise to a comfortable 5-3 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Granada CF 5-3 at Reale Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Sociedad 1.68 xG and Granada CF 0.90 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 5-3 for 8 actual goals. Real Sociedad beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Granada CF outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Sociedad attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against Granada CF attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Sociedad 55% | Draw 25% | Granada CF 20%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Sociedad 0%, Granada CF 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Sociedad's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Granada CF's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Sociedad 1.00 PPG, Granada CF 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Real Sociedad scored 5 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Granada CF scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.