🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Alaves 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sevilla beat Alaves 1-2 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.40 xG and Sevilla 1.17 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sevilla outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Sevilla attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 42% | Draw 27% | Sevilla 31%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 36%, Sevilla 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Sevilla's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.17 PPG, Sevilla 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights