Alaves 2-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Alaves (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alaves face Sevilla.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Mendizorroza plays host to Alaves versus Sevilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 20 September 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alaves have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Estadio de Mendizorroza this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mendizorroza. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sevilla's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Alaves's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Alaves lead 2W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2024, ended 3–2 with Alaves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Sevilla — key trading statistics (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 40% versus Sevilla 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 33% | Sevilla 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.23 xG and Sevilla 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.915 / defence 0.769 | Sevilla attack 0.975 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.046. Alaves's defence rating of 0.769 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Alaves games / 43 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 46% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 23%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Sevilla 4.35. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 30% | Sevilla 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 46% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Alaves 1.23 / Sevilla 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.915 / def 0.769 | Sevilla attack 0.975 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Alaves (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Sevilla xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Sevilla kick off?
Alaves vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Sevilla?
Alaves 2 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Alaves vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Sevilla part of?
Alaves vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 46% chance of winning, Sevilla a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Alaves and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Sevilla?
Record (4 meetings): Alaves 2W | Draws 2 | Sevilla 0W.
What form are Alaves and Sevilla in?
Alaves (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Sevilla (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alaves's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Sevilla's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Sevilla's attack (0.97x) against Alaves's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
46%
2.19
32%
3.16
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.02
0.79
Sevilla xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
7%
15.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Alaves and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Alaves and 0.79 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves come into this having played 43 games, going 14W 11D 18L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sevilla sit at 1.07 PPG from 43 outings (11W 13D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Alaves against 1.07 for Sevilla. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Alaves's home form reads 10W 5D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sevilla have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (4W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.21 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 43 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Sevilla
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 14W 11D 18L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Sevilla away?
Alaves's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.67 PPG; Sevilla away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Alaves or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sevilla in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sevilla — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Alaves
4
Draws
1
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Sevilla?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 3, Sevilla have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sevilla 1-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Sevilla?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 33%, Sevilla 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Alaves and 43% for Sevilla.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 29% of games; Sevilla in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alaves's recent matches and 48% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Alaves's recent games and 43% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Sevilla tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Sevilla 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Sevilla 2-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.23 xG and Sevilla 0.79 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.92 / defence 0.77 against Sevilla attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 46% | Draw 32% | Sevilla 23%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 33%, Sevilla 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sevilla's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.23 PPG, Sevilla 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.