Alaves 0-1 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Madrid (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Alaves face Real Madrid.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Alaves welcome Real Madrid to Estadio de Mendizorroza. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Alaves — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Alaves have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Madrid stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Real Madrid's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Real Madrid's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Alaves's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Real Madrid, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Alaves.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2024, ended 2–3 with Real Madrid winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Real Madrid have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Alaves trading profile (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Real Madrid trading profile (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 44% versus Real Madrid 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 37% | Real Madrid 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.81 xG and Real Madrid 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.686 / defence 0.941 | Real Madrid attack 1.187 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.245. Alaves's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 68 Alaves games / 68 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 22% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 51%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Real Madrid 1.96. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 40% | Real Madrid 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 22% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Alaves 0.81 / Real Madrid 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.686 / def 0.941 | Real Madrid attack 1.187 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Real Madrid xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Real Madrid kick off?
Alaves vs Real Madrid kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Alaves 0 - 1 Real Madrid.
Where is Alaves vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Real Madrid part of?
Alaves vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 22% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alaves and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Madrid?
Record (5 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 0 | Real Madrid 5W.
What form are Alaves and Real Madrid in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Real Madrid (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alaves's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
22%
4.59
28%
3.63
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.20
1.39
Real Madrid xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
45%
2.25
Win to Nil
5%
18.43
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.4 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Alaves and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Alaves and 1.39 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alaves's recent record stands at 19W 19D 30L from 68 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Real Madrid, meanwhile, have gone 48W 14D 6L across 68 games — 2.32 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 13W 8D 12L from 33 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Madrid's away record stands at 19W 10D 4L across 33 trips, a 2.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alaves are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.21 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Real Madrid
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 19W 19D 30L in their last 68 games (1.12 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 48W 14D 6L in their last 68 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.42 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.03 PPG.
Have Alaves or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Real Madrid have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2024, when Real Madrid won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Alaves
0
Draws
8
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Real Madrid?
From 8 meetings on record, Alaves have won 0, Real Madrid have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 36%, Real Madrid 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Alaves) and 58% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Real Madrid in 36%; Alaves have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Alaves's recent matches and 61% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Alaves's recent games and 58% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.81 xG and Real Madrid 1.39 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.69 / defence 0.94 against Real Madrid attack 1.19 / defence 0.90, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 22% | Draw 28% | Real Madrid 51%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 37%, Real Madrid 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Madrid's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.