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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rayo Vallecano defy the odds to beat Alaves 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Alaves 1-2 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 38, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.36 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.13 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.95 / defence 1.18 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 42% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 31%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Rayo Vallecano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 43%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.13 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights