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Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alaves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayo Vallecano beat Alaves 0-2 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.74 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.83 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.69 / defence 0.90 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.80 / defence 0.76, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 30% | Draw 36% | Rayo Vallecano 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rayo Vallecano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 38%, Rayo Vallecano 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.11 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights