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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alaves and Oviedo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves and Oviedo finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.70 xG and Oviedo 0.69 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Oviedo attack 0.68 / defence 1.38, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 61% | Draw 25% | Oviedo 14%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 41%, Oviedo 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Oviedo's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Alaves arrived the stronger side — 1.06 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oviedo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights