Alaves 0-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alaves at 40%, yet in-form Girona provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alaves vs Girona fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alaves host Girona at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 4W 4D 2L at Estadio de Mendizorroza — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio de Mendizorroza than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Girona — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Alaves, 1 for Girona and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Alaves in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Girona in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 45% versus Girona 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 39% | Girona 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.24 xG and Girona 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.876 / defence 0.966 | Girona attack 0.934 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.185. Data: 56 Alaves games / 56 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 40% | Draw 28% | Girona 32%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Girona 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alaves at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Girona (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Alaves 50% | Girona 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 40% | Draw 28% | Girona 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Alaves 1.24 / Girona 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.876 / def 0.966 | Girona attack 0.934 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Alaves (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Girona xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Girona kick off?
Alaves vs Girona kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Girona?
Alaves 0 - 1 Girona.
Where is Alaves vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Girona part of?
Alaves vs Girona is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 40% chance of winning, Girona a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Alaves and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Girona?
Record (2 meetings): Alaves 0W | Draws 1 | Girona 1W.
What form are Alaves and Girona in?
Alaves (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Girona (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alaves's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Alaves's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.55
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.31
1.07
Girona xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Alaves and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Alaves and 1.07 for Girona, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alaves's recent record stands at 16W 15D 25L from 56 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 32W 10D 14L across 56 games — 1.89 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Girona by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alaves heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 12W 7D 8L from 27 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Girona's away record stands at 12W 6D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Alaves are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.98 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 56 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Girona in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 16W 15D 25L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Girona have gone 32W 10D 14L in their last 56 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Girona away?
Alaves's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.59 PPG; Girona away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Alaves or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Girona in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alaves and Girona runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2023, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Alaves's record when hosting Girona specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Alaves
2
Draws
3
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Girona?
From 6 meetings on record, Alaves have won 1, Girona have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Alaves 2-2 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Girona?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 41%, Girona 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Alaves) and 52% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 26% of games; Girona in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Girona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Alaves's recent matches and 56% of Girona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Alaves's recent games and 52% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Girona tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Girona in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Alaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.24 xG and Girona 1.07 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Girona attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 40% | Draw 28% | Girona 32%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 39%, Girona 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Girona's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.