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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Getafe cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alaves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Alaves 0-2 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.35 xG and Getafe 0.81 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Alaves fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Getafe outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Getafe attack 0.78 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 48% | Draw 31% | Getafe 21%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Getafe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 40%, Getafe 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Getafe's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.12 PPG, Getafe 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights