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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Alaves 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Getafe beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.86 xG and Getafe 1.12 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.76 / defence 1.00 against Getafe attack 1.00 / defence 0.79, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 28% | Draw 31% | Getafe 42%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 38%, Getafe 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Getafe's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 1.12 PPG, Getafe 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Getafe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights