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Shock result as Espanyol defy the odds to beat Alaves 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Espanyol beat Alaves 0-1 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.33 xG and Espanyol 0.79 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Alaves fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.72 / defence 0.97 against Espanyol attack 0.71 / defence 1.30, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 50% | Draw 28% | Espanyol 22%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Espanyol win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 54%, Espanyol 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Espanyol's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alaves 0.92 PPG, Espanyol 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Espanyol win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Espanyol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights