Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Alaves at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Deportivo La Coruna meet at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alaves have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Alaves have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alaves at Estadio Mendizorrotza this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Deportivo La Coruna's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: D D W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Deportivo La Coruna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — Alaves have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Deportivo La Coruna in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Deportivo La Coruna half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 33% and Deportivo La Coruna 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 33% | Deportivo La Coruna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.81 xG and Deportivo La Coruna 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.038 / defence 0.850 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 0.835 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.138. Data: 41 Alaves games / 3 Deportivo La Coruna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 61% | Draw 23% | Deportivo La Coruna 16%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Deportivo La Coruna 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Alaves (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Alaves 60% | Deportivo La Coruna 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 61% | Draw 23% | Deportivo La Coruna 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 46% | xG Alaves 1.81 / Deportivo La Coruna 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.038 / def 0.850 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 0.835 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Alaves (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Deportivo La Coruna xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna kick off?
Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Where is Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna part of?
Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 61% chance of winning, Deportivo La Coruna a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Alaves and Deportivo La Coruna will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Deportivo La Coruna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alaves and Deportivo La Coruna in?
Alaves (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Deportivo La Coruna (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alaves's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Deportivo La Coruna's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Deportivo La Coruna's attack (0.83x) against Alaves's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.42
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.61
0.81
Deportivo La Coruna xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
16%
6.09
Win to Nil
27%
3.67
3%
37.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Alaves and Deportivo La Coruna expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Alaves and 0.81 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves's recent record stands at 2W 1D 0L from 3 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Alaves, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Deportivo La Coruna, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 0L across 3 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Deportivo La Coruna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Alaves by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Deportivo La Coruna heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Deportivo La Coruna are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Deportivo La Coruna in 100%.
Defensively: Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Early Season
Deportivo La Coruna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Deportivo La Coruna in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 games (2.33 PPG), while Deportivo La Coruna have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 (1.67 PPG).
Have Alaves or Deportivo La Coruna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alaves have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Deportivo La Coruna in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Deportivo La Coruna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Alaves, 100% for Deportivo La Coruna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Alaves and 33% for Deportivo La Coruna.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Deportivo La Coruna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Deportivo La Coruna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Alaves's games and 100% of Deportivo La Coruna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Alaves's recent games and 33% of Deportivo La Coruna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Deportivo La Coruna tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Deportivo La Coruna in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.