Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson model rates Alaves at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Deportivo La Coruna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Alaves and Deportivo La Coruna meet at Estadio Mendizorrotza in La Liga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Alaves have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alaves at Estadio Mendizorrotza this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Alaves are significantly better at Estadio Mendizorrotza than their overall form suggests.

Deportivo La Coruna's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 5D 2L from 9 games (1.22 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Deportivo La Coruna, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Deportivo La Coruna have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.22 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Alaves have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Deportivo La Coruna in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading

Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Deportivo La Coruna half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Alaves 56% and Deportivo La Coruna 89% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 56% | Deportivo La Coruna 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 2.07 xG and Deportivo La Coruna 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.043 / defence 0.981 | Deportivo La Coruna attack 1.035 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.277. Deportivo La Coruna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Alaves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Alaves games / 9 Deportivo La Coruna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Alaves 54% | Draw 23% | Deportivo La Coruna 23%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | Deportivo La Coruna 4.35. Alaves hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Alaves as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 60% | Deportivo La Coruna 100% BTTS from recent games.

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