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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alaves and Atletico Madrid share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves and Atletico Madrid finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.19 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.10 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 38% | Draw 28% | Atletico Madrid 34%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 38%, Atletico Madrid 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights