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Stalemate at Alaves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alaves and Atletico Madrid finished level at 0-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.72 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.06 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atletico Madrid landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.64 / defence 0.87 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.03 / defence 0.84, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 25% | Draw 32% | Atletico Madrid 43%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 35%, Atletico Madrid 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atletico Madrid's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights