🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Athletic Club cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Alaves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Athletic Club beat Alaves 2-4 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 34, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.79 xG and Athletic Club 1.19 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Athletic Club outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Athletic Club attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 52% | Draw 23% | Athletic Club 25%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Athletic Club win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 44%, Athletic Club 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Athletic Club's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights