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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alaves and Athletic Club share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 17, as Alaves and Athletic Club drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.06 xG and Athletic Club 1.14 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against Athletic Club attack 1.01 / defence 0.87, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alaves 33% | Draw 29% | Athletic Club 37%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 39%, Athletic Club 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alaves's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Athletic Club's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights