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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Suwon City FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Relegation Group - 36, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.74 xG and Suwon City FC 1.45 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Suwon City FC attack 1.26 / defence 1.27, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, Suwon City FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.55 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights