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Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 xG and Suwon City FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Suwon City FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 38%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, Suwon City FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Suwon City FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights