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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.

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Match Analysis

Ulsan Hyundai FC host Suwon City FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 August 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Suwon City FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Suwon City FC away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon City FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Ulsan Hyundai FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Suwon City FC have managed just 1 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ulsan Hyundai FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Suwon City FC trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Suwon City FC 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 xG and Suwon City FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.075 / defence 1.052 | Suwon City FC attack 1.104 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.273. Data: 56 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 56 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon City FC 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Suwon City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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