Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Suwon City FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 August 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon City FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 PPG, Suwon City FC 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon City FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Ulsan Hyundai FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Suwon City FC have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ulsan Hyundai FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% versus Suwon City FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% | Suwon City FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 xG and Suwon City FC 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.075 / defence 1.052 | Suwon City FC attack 1.104 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.273. Data: 56 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 56 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon City FC 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Suwon City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 / Suwon City FC 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.075 / def 1.052 | Suwon City FC attack 1.104 / def 1.053 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Suwon City FC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 3 Suwon City FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Record (7 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W | Draws 2 | Suwon City FC 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Suwon City FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Suwon City FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon City FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
38%
2.65
25%
4.05
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.96
1.48
Suwon City FC xG
2.65
38%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
9%
11.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.48 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 29W 16D 16L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon City FC's form line: 21W 15D 25L from 61 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Suwon City FC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 30 outings (18W 6D 6L).
On the road, Suwon City FC have gone 7W 9D 14L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Suwon City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 29W 16D 16L in their last 61 games (1.69 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 21W 15D 25L in their last 61 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Suwon City FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Suwon City FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Suwon City FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Suwon City FC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Suwon City FC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Suwon City FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 47% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Suwon City FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 60% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Suwon City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 47% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Suwon City FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Suwon City FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon City FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.48 xG and Suwon City FC 1.48 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Suwon City FC outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Suwon City FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.05, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 25% | Suwon City FC 38%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Suwon City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, Suwon City FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with Suwon City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.