Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.40 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ulsan Hyundai FC: 5 wins from 10 previous clashes against 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, with 3 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ulsan Hyundai FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.117 / defence 1.280 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.880 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.290. Data: 53 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 53 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 32% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 32% | Draw 31% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 59% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.35 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.117 / def 1.280 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.880 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 32% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (10 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 5W | Draws 3 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
32%
3.10
31%
3.25
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.80
1.45
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.45 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 20W 15D 23L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 21W 18D 19L from 58 games, 1.40 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.29 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 1.39 PPG from 28 outings (11W 6D 11L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 10W 9D 9L from 28 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 20W 15D 23L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 21W 18D 19L in their last 58 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.39 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 54%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 57% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 68% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 57% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.