Jeju United FC 3-1 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Jeju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeju United FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 August 2026, 10:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeju United FC — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jeju United FC at 1.70 PPG versus Daejeon Citizen's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Jeju United FC, 3 for Daejeon Citizen and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 54% versus Daejeon Citizen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 41% | Daejeon Citizen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.27 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.968 / defence 0.900 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.098 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.308. Data: 58 Jeju United FC games / 58 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 33% | Daejeon Citizen 34%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Daejeon Citizen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 60% | Daejeon Citizen 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 33% | Daejeon Citizen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Jeju United FC 1.27 / Daejeon Citizen 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.968 / def 0.900 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.098 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Daejeon Citizen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Jeju United FC 3 - 1 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 33% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (9 meetings): Jeju United FC 4W | Draws 2 | Daejeon Citizen 3W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
33%
3.01
33%
3.06
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.29
Daejeon Citizen xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
9%
10.98
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.29 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 20W 17D 26L from 63 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daejeon Citizen, meanwhile, have gone 26W 19D 18L across 63 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.22 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 10W 10D 11L from 31 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daejeon Citizen's away record stands at 13W 9D 9L across 31 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.46 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 20W 17D 26L in their last 63 games (1.22 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 26W 19D 18L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Daejeon Citizen's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.29 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeju United FC
2
Draws
3
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 5, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Jeju United FC 3-1 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 48%, Daejeon Citizen 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Jeju United FC) and 61% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Daejeon Citizen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 58% of Daejeon Citizen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 61% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Daejeon Citizen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Daejeon Citizen 3-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.27 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.29 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.10 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 33% | Draw 33% | Daejeon Citizen 34%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 41%, Daejeon Citizen 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.22 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.