Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 41%, yet in-form Gimcheon Sangmu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1 (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 05:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gimcheon Sangmu FC are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.1 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended Ulsan Hyundai FC 0–3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC — a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.1 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC trading profile (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.228 / defence 0.984 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.983 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.274. Data: built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 36 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% | Draw 32% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.47 | Draw 3.09 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gimcheon Sangmu FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Ulsan Hyundai FC 36 games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 5 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% | Draw 32% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.228 / def 0.984 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.983 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC FAQs
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 5) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 41% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 36 games and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 37, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
41%
2.47
32%
3.09
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.23
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.23 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 32W 20D 24L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 36W 16D 24L from 76 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 1.84 PPG from their last 37 home games (20W 8D 9L).
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 15W 9D 13L from their last 37 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC (Home) vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Form FAQs
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 games (1.53 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 36W 16D 24L in their last 76 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
3
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 49%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 60% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 57% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ulsan Hyundai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC finished level at 0-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.23 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.98 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 36/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% | Draw 32% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.