🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers finished level at 1-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.68 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.10 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.95 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.13 / defence 1.20, drawn from 46/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 25%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Pohang Steelers 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights