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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ulsan Hyundai FC face Pohang Steelers.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome Pohang Steelers to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 5 May 2025 at 08:30 UTC.

Form Guide

Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 8W 0D 2L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Pohang Steelers's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 2 for Pohang Steelers and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Pohang Steelers winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% versus Pohang Steelers 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% | Pohang Steelers 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.68 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.120 / defence 0.952 | Pohang Steelers attack 1.132 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.024. Pohang Steelers bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 44 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% | Draw 24% | Pohang Steelers 25%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Pohang Steelers 4.00. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Pohang Steelers 90% BTTS from recent games.

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