Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-0 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Jeonbuk Motors at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 21 April 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.431 / defence 1.107 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.334 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 0.991. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.431 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jeonbuk Motors have an above-average attack strength of 1.334 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 10 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Apr 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.431 / def 1.107 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.334 / def 1.055 | league avg home 0.972 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Jeonbuk Motors xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 21 April 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 0 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
38%
2.64
25%
4.06
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.46
Jeonbuk Motors xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.41
9%
11.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.46 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
5
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Ulsan Hyundai FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeonbuk Motors finished level at 0-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.47 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.46 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.43 / defence 1.11 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.33 / defence 1.05, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% | Draw 25% | Jeonbuk Motors 38%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.