Incheon United 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to Sungui Arena Park to face Incheon United in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 April 2021 at 06:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.04 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.940 / defence 1.347 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.769 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 0.925 / away 0.962. Data: 11 Incheon United games / 11 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 36% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Incheon United are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Apr 2021, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 36% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Incheon United 1.04 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.940 / def 1.347 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.769 / def 1.198 | league avg home 0.925 / away 0.962 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 25 April 2021 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Incheon United 0 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 36% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (0.94) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.77x) against Incheon United's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
36%
2.78
30%
3.28
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.04
1.00
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.00 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Incheon United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 0-0 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.04 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Incheon United fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.94 / defence 1.35 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 36% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 34%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.