Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 Jeju United FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium plays host to Ulsan Hyundai FC versus Jeju United FC in K League 1, Relegation Group - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Jeju United FC (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeju United FC's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Ulsan Hyundai FC's favour (1.00 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
The historical record gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% versus Jeju United FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 43% | Jeju United FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.50 xG and Jeju United FC 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.915 / defence 0.942 | Jeju United FC attack 0.863 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.226. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Jeju United FC 4.17. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Jeju United FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Group - 38 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.50 / Jeju United FC 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.915 / def 0.942 | Jeju United FC attack 0.863 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Jeju United FC xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 0 - 1 Jeju United FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC is a Relegation Group - 38 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 48% chance of winning, Jeju United FC a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Record (6 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 5W | Draws 0 | Jeju United FC 1W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 0.92x the league average against Jeju United FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jeju United FC's attack (0.86x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
48%
2.08
28%
3.59
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.50
1.00
Jeju United FC xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
5%
18.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.00 for Jeju United FC, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ulsan Hyundai FC come into this having played 75 games, going 32W 20D 23L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Jeju United FC sit at 1.13 PPG from 75 outings (24W 13D 38L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home form reads 21W 8D 8L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeju United FC have taken 0.76 points per game from 37 outings (7W 7D 23L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Jeju United FC are on 1.03 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 75 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 23L in their last 75 games (1.55 PPG), while Jeju United FC have gone 24W 13D 38L in their last 75 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Jeju United FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 1.92 PPG; Jeju United FC away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Jeju United FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Jeju United FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeju United FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Ulsan Hyundai FC
1
Draws
2
Jeju United FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 7, Jeju United FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Jeju United FC 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 49%, Jeju United FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 51% (Jeju United FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Jeju United FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Jeju United FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Jeju United FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent matches and 57% of Jeju United FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Jeju United FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 51% of Jeju United FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Jeju United FC tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jeju United FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 0-1 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Relegation Group - 38, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.50 xG and Jeju United FC 1.00 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Jeju United FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 28% | Jeju United FC 24%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%, Jeju United FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Jeju United FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Jeju United FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.