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Ulsan Hyundai FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jeju United FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 2-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.98 xG and Jeju United FC 0.80 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Jeju United FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 37% | Draw 36% | Jeju United FC 27%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Jeju United FC 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights