Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-2 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Incheon United make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Incheon United have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Ulsan Hyundai FC against 2.10 for Incheon United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% versus Incheon United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56% | Incheon United 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.77 xG and Incheon United 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.321 / defence 1.309 | Incheon United attack 0.975 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.000 / away 1.122. Ulsan Hyundai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Incheon United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 25 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 31%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Incheon United 3.23. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% | Incheon United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.77 / Incheon United 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.321 / def 1.309 | Incheon United attack 0.975 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.000 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Incheon United xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 2 Incheon United.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 45% chance of winning, Incheon United a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Incheon United (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.32) and Incheon United's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.97x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 26/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
45%
2.22
24%
4.18
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.20
1.43
Incheon United xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
5%
18.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.43 for Incheon United, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 13W 9D 3L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Incheon United's form line: 10W 6D 9L from 25 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Incheon United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.08 PPG from 12 outings (7W 4D 1L).
On the road, Incheon United have gone 4W 1D 7L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.16 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Incheon United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 13W 9D 3L in their last 25 games (1.92 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 10W 6D 9L in their last 25 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Incheon United away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.08 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Incheon United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
4
Draws
3
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Incheon United have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 67%, Incheon United 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 75% for Incheon United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Incheon United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Incheon United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 58% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 75% of Incheon United's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Incheon United 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Incheon United 3-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.77 xG and Incheon United 1.43 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.32 / defence 1.31 against Incheon United attack 0.97 / defence 1.34, drawn from 26/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 24% | Incheon United 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%, Incheon United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Incheon United's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Incheon United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.