Pohang Steelers 0-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pohang Steelers host Suwon Bluewings at Steelyard Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pohang Steelers — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pohang Steelers at Steelyard Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Steelyard Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon Bluewings have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Pohang Steelers have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Pohang Steelers have won 0, Suwon Bluewings 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pohang Steelers in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Suwon Bluewings in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 52% versus Suwon Bluewings 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 36% | Suwon Bluewings 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.21 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.906 / defence 0.962 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.949 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 1.130. Suwon Bluewings bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Pohang Steelers games / 26 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 40% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 31%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon Bluewings 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 30% | Suwon Bluewings 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 40% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.21 / Suwon Bluewings 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.906 / def 0.962 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.949 / def 1.344 | league avg home 0.995 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Suwon Bluewings xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Pohang Steelers 0 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 40% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (2 meetings): Pohang Steelers 0W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pohang Steelers's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
40%
2.49
29%
3.47
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.24
1.03
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.03 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pohang Steelers's recent record stands at 9W 8D 8L from 25 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon Bluewings, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 10L across 25 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.40 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pohang Steelers have managed 5W 4D 3L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon Bluewings's away record stands at 5W 3D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.28 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 25 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 9W 8D 8L in their last 25 games (1.40 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 8W 7D 10L in their last 25 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.58 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings?
From 9 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 42%, Suwon Bluewings 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Pohang Steelers) and 58% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 42%; Pohang Steelers have failed to score in 33% of games; Suwon Bluewings in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 42% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 58% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Pohang Steelers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings drew 0-0 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.21 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.03 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Suwon Bluewings landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.95 / defence 1.34, drawn from 25/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 40% | Draw 29% | Suwon Bluewings 31%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 36%, Suwon Bluewings 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.40 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.