Ulsan Hyundai FC 5-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC host Gangwon FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 March 2021 at 05:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.04 xG and Gangwon FC 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Gangwon FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 0.508. Data: 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 0 Gangwon FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 41% | Gangwon FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.22 | Draw 2.44 | Gangwon FC 7.14. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (41%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.54. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.54 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Gangwon FC's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 41% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.54 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 Mar 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 41% | Gangwon FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.04 / Gangwon FC 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Gangwon FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.069 / away 0.508 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Gangwon FC xG
29%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 05:00 on Monday 1 March 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 5 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 45% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 14% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 0.85x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 0.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (20.9%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
45%
2.21
41%
2.46
14%
7.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
22.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
21.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
1.54
0.50
Gangwon FC xG
2.21
45%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
7.14
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.48
71%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
28%
3.63
5%
20.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.4 | 10.6 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 22.4 | 11.1 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.50 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 1.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Ulsan Hyundai FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gangwon FC 5-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.04 xG and Gangwon FC 0.50 xG, a combined 1.54. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Gangwon FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% | Draw 41% | Gangwon FC 14%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.