Gangwon FC 1-3 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gangneung Stadium plays host to Gangwon FC versus Pohang Steelers in K League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.23 xG and Pohang Steelers 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.969 / defence 1.150 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 0.571. Data: 1 Gangwon FC games / 1 Pohang Steelers games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 49% | Draw 37% | Pohang Steelers 13%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.04 | Draw 2.70 | Pohang Steelers 7.69. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Pohang Steelers's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gangwon FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 37% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Gangneung Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 49% | Draw 37% | Pohang Steelers 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Gangwon FC 1.23 / Pohang Steelers 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.969 / def 1.150 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.102 / away 0.571 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Pohang Steelers xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 6 March 2021 at Gangneung Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Gangwon FC 1 - 3 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Gangneung Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 49% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 13% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Gangwon FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Pohang Steelers's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Pohang Steelers's attack (0.85x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 19.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.3%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
49%
2.03
37%
2.68
13%
7.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
1.79
0.56
Pohang Steelers xG
2.03
49%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
7.44
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.97
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
4%
25.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 9.4 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.6 | 11.5 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 0.56 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Pre-Season
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pohang Steelers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
1
Draws
5
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Pohang Steelers have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Gangwon FC 1-1 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Pohang Steelers?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Pohang Steelers cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gangwon FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Gangwon FC 1-3 at Gangneung Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.23 xG and Pohang Steelers 0.56 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pohang Steelers outscored their 0.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 49% | Draw 37% | Pohang Steelers 13%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Pohang Steelers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.