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Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 xG and Gangwon FC 0.77 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Gangwon FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 48% | Draw 29% | Gangwon FC 22%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Gangwon FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Gangwon FC 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.34. Form was overturned, with Gangwon FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights