Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Daejeon Citizen travel to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to take on Ulsan Hyundai FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 23 July 2025, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have recorded 1W 7D 2L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ulsan Hyundai FC at 1.30 PPG versus Daejeon Citizen's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2025, ended 2–3 with Daejeon Citizen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% versus Daejeon Citizen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Daejeon Citizen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.63 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.133 / defence 1.019 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.200 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.260. Data: 54 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 55 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 36%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Daejeon Citizen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Daejeon Citizen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Jul 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.63 / Daejeon Citizen 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.133 / def 1.019 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.200 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Daejeon Citizen xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 23 July 2025 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 2 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 39% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (6 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 2W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ulsan Hyundai FC's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Daejeon Citizen's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
39%
2.54
25%
4.00
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.54
Daejeon Citizen xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.54 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Ulsan Hyundai FC have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 29W 15D 15L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Daejeon Citizen's form line: 21W 20D 18L from 59 games, 1.41 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.73 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 2.07 PPG from 29 outings (18W 6D 5L).
On the road, Daejeon Citizen have gone 9W 11D 9L from 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.22 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 29W 15D 15L in their last 59 games (1.73 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 21W 20D 18L in their last 59 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 May 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
5
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, Daejeon Citizen have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 26 August 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 52%, Daejeon Citizen 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 62% for Daejeon Citizen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 69% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's matches and 62% of Daejeon Citizen's.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.63 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.54 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.02 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.20 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 36%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Daejeon Citizen 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.73 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.