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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Daejeon Citizen edge out Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.08 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.29 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.45 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 31% | Draw 28% | Daejeon Citizen 41%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with Daejeon Citizen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights