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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ulsan Hyundai FC and Daegu FC finished level at 2-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.14 xG and Daegu FC 0.96 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Daegu FC outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.94 against Daegu FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.49, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 63% | Draw 21% | Daegu FC 15%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%, Daegu FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Daegu FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights