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Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ulsan Hyundai FC face Daegu FC.

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Analysis

Daegu FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 July 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Current Form

Ulsan Hyundai FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Daegu FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daegu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Ulsan Hyundai FC's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Daegu FC's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Head-to-Head

Historically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 7 meetings, with Daegu FC managing just 0 victories and 1 draws shared.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.

The historical record gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 49% versus Daegu FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 42% | Daegu FC 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.14 xG and Daegu FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.205 / defence 0.943 | Daegu FC attack 0.851 / defence 1.485. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.202. Daegu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.485 — this is suppressing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 53 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 63% | Draw 21% | Daegu FC 15%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Daegu FC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Ulsan Hyundai FC (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Daegu FC 70% BTTS from recent games.

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