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Suwon City FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 4-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.39 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 42% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 54%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.29 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights