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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Suwon City FC — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 5W 1D 4L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon City FC 1.30 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Suwon City FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 3–2 with Suwon City FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 54% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.39 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.087 / defence 1.057 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.892 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.229. Data: 58 Suwon City FC games / 58 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 42% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 80% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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