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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Suwon City FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 1-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 0.87 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.86, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 27% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 57%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights