Suwon City FC 2-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Suwon City FC face Ulsan Hyundai FC.

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Match Analysis

Suwon City FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1 (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 07:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Suwon City FC — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Suwon City FC have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 home games — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Ulsan Hyundai FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Suwon City FC 1.00 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Suwon City FC have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Jun 2023, ended Suwon City FC 1–3 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Suwon City FC in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 59%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 57% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Suwon City FC surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Ulsan Hyundai FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 59% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.18 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.929 / defence 1.316 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.040 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.168. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ulsan Hyundai FC's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 63 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 63.

Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 28% | Draw 25% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.54 | Draw 4.04 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.13. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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