Daejeon Citizen 3-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 31 as Daejeon Citizen welcome Suwon Bluewings to Daejeon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 06:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daejeon Citizen have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Daejeon Citizen's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Daejeon World Cup Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Suwon Bluewings — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Suwon Bluewings's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Daejeon Citizen 1.00 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Daejeon Citizen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Suwon Bluewings in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Daejeon Citizen, 0 for Suwon Bluewings and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Daejeon Citizen in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Suwon Bluewings in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 62% versus Suwon Bluewings 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 59% | Suwon Bluewings 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.50 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.972 / defence 1.283 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.971 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.149. Data: 30 Daejeon Citizen games / 63 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 36%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Suwon Bluewings 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daejeon Citizen at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Daejeon Citizen 60% | Suwon Bluewings 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.50 / Suwon Bluewings 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 0.972 / def 1.283 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.971 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Suwon Bluewings xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 06:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings?
Daejeon Citizen 3 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 39% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (2 meetings): Daejeon Citizen 1W | Draws 1 | Suwon Bluewings 0W.
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon Bluewings in?
Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Daejeon Citizen's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Daejeon Citizen's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
39%
2.56
25%
4.06
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.93
1.43
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.43 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Daejeon Citizen come into this having played 32 games, going 11W 11D 10L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Suwon Bluewings sit at 0.81 PPG from 32 outings (6W 8D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Daejeon Citizen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Daejeon Citizen's home form reads 7W 4D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon Bluewings have taken 0.93 points per game from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 0.91 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 11W 11D 10L in their last 32 games (1.38 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 6W 8D 18L in their last 32 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.67 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Daejeon Citizen's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Daejeon Citizen
2
Draws
0
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon Bluewings?
From 4 meetings on record, Daejeon Citizen have won 2, Suwon Bluewings have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 2-2 Daejeon Citizen.
Who has won more matches between Daejeon Citizen and Suwon Bluewings?
Daejeon Citizen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 60%, Suwon Bluewings 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Daejeon Citizen) and 53% (Suwon Bluewings). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daejeon Citizen play Suwon Bluewings?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Daejeon Citizen's games and 67% of Suwon Bluewings's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Daejeon Citizen vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Daejeon Citizen's matches and 53% of Suwon Bluewings's.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Daejeon Citizen have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Suwon Bluewings 3-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.50 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.43 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 0.97 / defence 1.28 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 30/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 39% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 36%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 59%, Suwon Bluewings 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.