Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Suwon City FC at 44% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Suwon Bluewings travel to Suwon Sports Complex to take on Suwon City FC in K League 1 (Relegation Round - 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 05:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Suwon City FC stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC at home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Suwon Bluewings — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Suwon Bluewings's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Suwon City FC) versus 0.80 (Suwon Bluewings). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Suwon Bluewings's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Suwon City FC: 7 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Suwon Bluewings, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Suwon City FC 2–0 Suwon Bluewings — a Suwon City FC win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Suwon City FC and goals — 7 wins from 9 H2H matches and an average of 2.9 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Suwon Bluewings in-play tendencies (last 73 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Suwon Bluewings 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 62% | Suwon Bluewings 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.61 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.009 / defence 1.316 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.893 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Suwon Bluewings's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Suwon City FC's projected output up. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Suwon Bluewings's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 66 games and Suwon Bluewings's last 66.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 31%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.29 | Draw 3.95 | Suwon Bluewings 3.22. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Suwon City FC 7 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and Suwon Bluewings's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Suwon Bluewings 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Suwon City FC 1.61 / Suwon Bluewings 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.009 / def 1.316 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.893 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Suwon Bluewings xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings FAQs
What time does Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon City FC 2 - 3 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a K League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 44% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Suwon City FC's last 66 games and Suwon Bluewings's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
44%
2.29
25%
3.95
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.94
1.33
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
6%
16.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.33 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 21W 17D 35L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Suwon Bluewings's form line: 17W 20D 36L from 73 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.10 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.26 PPG from their last 35 home games (12W 8D 15L).
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 8W 9D 18L from their last 35 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.04 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Suwon City FC (Home) vs Suwon Bluewings (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings Form FAQs
What form are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 21W 17D 35L in their last 73 games (1.10 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 17W 20D 36L in their last 73 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.26 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Aug 2021, when Suwon City FC won Suwon Bluewings 0-3 Suwon City FC.
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Suwon City FC
0
Draws
3
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon City FC have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 November 2023: Suwon City FC 2-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Suwon Bluewings are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 69%, Suwon Bluewings 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Suwon City FC and 54% for Suwon Bluewings. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon City FC vs Suwon Bluewings Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Suwon City FC's games and 60% of Suwon Bluewings's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Suwon City FC's matches and 54% of Suwon Bluewings's.
Do Suwon City FC and Suwon Bluewings matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 80% of Suwon Bluewings's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Suwon City FC 2-3 at Suwon Sports Complex, Relegation Round - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.61 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.33 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.32 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.89 / defence 1.30, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 25% | Suwon Bluewings 31%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 62%, Suwon Bluewings 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.10 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.